If Trump Dies, the Stock Market Will Rally
Investors love stability
I’m writing this very short article because I haven’t seen anyone make this point. And it matters to your money. Especially when you consider the reality that the President of The United States has COVID-19.
Our country is a cartoon. Except it’s not. This is all too real.
Regardless of what you think about Donald Trump politically, it’s objectively difficult for an otherwise sane and logical person to call him anything other than unstable. I understand why people like him, even if I disagree with them. But, to a person, even his most ardent supporters concede — he’s not steady in a stable way.
He’s erratic. He stands for nothing. He throws things out there to get a reaction or to message one audience, only to backtrack later. He’s everything a President should not be, at least if you look back on the greatest — and not so great — leaders of our time. He doesn’t fit the conception of what we think a President should be. For many, this is the central part of his appeal.
During a period when we need Robert F. Kennedy (imagine if he had become President!), we have Donald J. Trump.
The Best Thing That Can Happen on November 3rd for Investors
Joe Biden wins in a landslide.
If he comes in hard on nothing else, Biden will absolutely make it a priority to return America to a place of stability.
He will get us back in international agreements, accords, and organizations. He’ll treat other countries with respect. He’ll foster productive relations with foreign leaders, allies or otherwise. He’ll denounce white supremacy. He’ll surround himself with people who push back. He’ll give the progressive wing of the Democratic party a long overdue voice. He’ll show empathy for the people around him as well as the American people.
All of these things will bring stability. Investors like stability.
If Joe Biden wins big because he was going to anyway, fantastic. If he wins because, for one unfortunate reason or another, Donald Trump can’t run, also fantastic.
The only way the stock market suffers sustained, post-election damage is if Trump wins and riots ensue around the globe, particularly in American cities. Or if Biden wins and Trump contests the election in front of the cameras and through the courts in battleground states. This would send the stock market into a record-defying tailspin.
The stock market would eventually recover from even this level of carnage. However, it would freak a lot of people out along the way. They would panic sell and lose large amounts of money. Even worse, retirees and people nearing retirement would face unprecedented anxiety over whether they have enough money and their ability to outlive it.
Donald Trump’s diagnosis changes the game.
If he dies, the market will rally because this means Joe Biden will likely win. It will be a more dramatic version of what we saw when the market opened lower, then moved higher on the news of Trump’s partially self-inflicted bad luck.
I know this sounds crass. I cringe as I write these words.
This said, the stock market — and the big investors who drive it — don’t care about crass. They, sort of like Donald Trump, treat events that require empathy, nuance, and understanding in a black and white way that reduces everything down to numbers.
Like it or not, if you have money saved and invested, this matters to you.
You must consider the on-the-ground dynamics dictated by the big players, as emotionally and intellectually uncomfortable as they might be.
